China’s economic slowdown weighs on consumer spending

Until the Chinese stock market crashed in June, Shanghai stockbroker Wang Yu had been planning to spend Rmb60,000 ($9,400) on a diamond engagement ring. When it came time to propose in October, he offered a Rmb4,000 gold ring instead.        

在中国股市6月暴跌之前，上海的证券经纪人王宇（音译）一直打算花6万元人民币（合9400美元）购买一枚钻石订婚戒指。但到了10月份求婚的时候，他拿出了一枚价值4000元人民币的金戒指。 

Mr Wang's tempered extravagance is one example of how Shanghai's consumers may be cutting back in the face of economic uncertainty, with implications for the broader Chinese rebalancing story.         

王宇收敛了铺张行为，这是上海消费者在面对不明朗的经济前景时可能缩减开支的一个例子，对更广泛的中国经济再平衡之说具有含义。 

Despite a sharp slowdown in economic growth and the stock market crash, consumers in China's commercial capital have proven resilient, according to FT Confidential Research, a research service from the Financial Times. A survey of consumers across the city found they spent an average Rmb4,959 a month over the past 12 months, compared with Rmb1,737 across urban areas nationwide. They increasingly favour a quality meal and foreign goods, while nearly 70 percent said they travelled abroad during the past 12 months.         

根据英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务部门“投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)，尽管中国经济增长大幅放缓，股市暴跌，事实证明中国商业首都上海的消费者们依然保持活力。一项覆盖全市的消费者调查发现，过去12个月中，他们每个月平均支出4959元人民币，而全国城市地区的平均值为1737元人民币。上海消费者日益青睐优质膳食和外国产品，近70%的人表示他们在过去12个月中曾出过国。 

But cracks are appearing in the Shanghai consumer story. Spending on luxury goods, the most conspicuous symbol of Shanghainese consumption, may be on the wane. While 53.2 percent of respondents said they intend to increase spending on luxury goods in the coming 12 months, the average intended spend fell to Rmb6,454 from Rmb7,596 in the previous 12 months.         

但上海消费者的故事正在出现裂痕。热爱购买奢侈品是上海人最显著的消费特征，但他们在奢侈品上的支出或许正在逐渐减少。尽管53.2%的受访者声称他们打算在未来12个月增加在奢侈品上的支出，预期支出的平均值从之前12个月的7596元人民币降至6454元人民币。 

Furthermore, just 18.7 percent said they intend to increase spending in the coming 12 months. Among wealthy residents, 60 percent said they intend to hold spending steady against a citywide average of 58.4 per cent.     

此外，仅有18.7%的受访者说他们打算在未来12个月增加支出。在富裕的居民中，60%的人声称他们打算保持支出稳定不变，而全市消费者的这个比例为58.4%。 

Their caution is understandable: 43.4 percent of respondents said they expect the economy to worsen in the coming 12 months, while only 36.7 percent said conditions will improve.         

他们的谨慎是可以理解的：43.4%的受访者表示他们预计经济在未来12个月将恶化，仅有36.7%的受访者认为会好转。 

Shanghai's citizens may still be spending, and the survey found — crucially — that incomes are still rising. But these notes of caution are yet more correctives to the widespread notion that the Chinese consumer will swing to the rescue of the national economy as the traditional drivers of growth slow.         

上海市民或许还将继续支出，该调查也发现了关键的一点——他们的收入还在上升。但是，这种谨慎的意味更加纠正了一个普遍观念，即中国消费者将在传统增长引擎放缓的时候拯救国民经济。 

The established narrative sees a relatively smooth rebalancing away from capital intensive industries as consumer spending takes up the slack.         

已经被接受的说法是，中国经济正在经历相对平稳的再平衡，逐渐减少对资本密集型行业的依赖，而消费者支出将填补空缺。 

But this gauge of Shanghai consumer habits is among a growing pile of data that indicate the slowdown in traditional industries is weighing on Chinese consumer spending, regardless of what is shown by the much-trumpeted rise in the official monthly retail sales indicator.         

然而这项对上海消费者消费习惯的调查，以及越来越多的相关数据表明，不管大肆宣传的官方月度零售销售指标上升表明了什么，传统行业的放缓正在对中国的消费者支出产生影响。 

Far from filling the breach and propping up growth, the Chinese consumer's willingness to spend will continue to deteriorate until sectors such as construction come back.         

中国消费者还远远谈不上填补缺口和支撑增长，他们的支出意愿将持续减弱，直到建筑业等行业复苏。 

The future Mrs Wang has become an unwitting victim of the economic slowdown.         

未来的王太太在不知不觉中成为了经济放缓的受害者。