Fears over China’s economic slowdown overstated

China's economic woes have been making headlines. Even Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen cited "global risk" (clearly referring to China's market instability) when justifying holding off on increasing interest rates.

中国的经济困境一直占据着最近的头条位置。就连美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦在为推迟加息辩护的时候，也援引了“全球性风险”（显然指的是中国的市场动荡）。

But when you dig down into the details, China's economy does not loom large for the U.S. Exports to China last year totaled about $121 billion and accounted for only 0.7 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.

但如果深挖细节，中国经济对于美国来说并不特别突出。去年对华出口额共计约为1210亿美元，约占美国GDP的仅0.7%。

Furthermore, because China is such a major importer of oil and other commodities, a slowing Chinese economy means lower prices for oil, copper, iron ore and other materials imported by the U.S. and most other advanced countries.

此外，因为中国是如此重要的一个石油和其他商品的主要进口国，中国经济放缓意味着美国和其他大多数发达国家进口的石油、铜、铁矿石和其他材料的价格会降低。

Retirees are consumers, not producers, which means they must sell assets from their portfolios in order to finance their consumption. Unfortunately, members of the younger generations in the developed world are not sufficiently numerous, nor do they have enough income, to absorb all of these assets.

退休人员是消费者，而不是生产者，这意味着政府必须从其总资产中出售一部分资产，为消费提供资金。不幸的是，发达国家年轻一代的人口数量不够多，他们也没有足够的收入，来买入所有这些资产。

Fortunately, my research suggests, emerging economies could provide the needed savings to absorb retirees' asset sales. To do that, however, they'll have to achieve growth of 4 percent to 5 percent per year in labor productivity. China has easily surpassed that bar, even though its recent annual growth has slowed from more than 10 percent to 6 percent to 7 percent.

幸运的是，研究显示，新兴经济体能够提供买入退休人员出售资产所需的资金。但是，要做到这一点，它们将必须实现劳动生产率每年增长4%到5%。中国已经轻而易举超过了这个标准，尽管最近的年增长率已经从超过10%减缓至6%到7%。

The important question is this: If China is reaching the limits of its growth, does that call into question the potential growth in India and other emerging economies? India is seeing its GDP grow by nearly 8 percent this year, and that trend is expected to continue in 2016. And Africa, the world's poorest continent, has scarcely begun to realize its potential.

重要的问题是：如果中国正在接近其增长率的极限，那么印度和其他新兴市场的潜在增长率是否也面临问题？印度今年的GDP增长率已经接近8%，这种趋势在2016年将继续。而且，非洲，全球最贫困的大陆，刚刚开始意识到其潜力。

The deceleration of the Chinese economy may be more severe than Beijing admits. But China is only one part of the global economy, and even its recent slowdown does not spell the end of growth. In planning for the long run, investors should look further ahead. And the future prospects for world economic growth are still very favorable.

中国经济的减速状况或许比北京承认的还要严峻。但是中国只是全球经济的一部分，而且即使其最近的减缓也并非意味着增长的结束。在做长远规划的时候，投资者应当放眼未来，而且世界经济增长的未来前景仍然非常乐观。