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Why do China’s house prices rebound?

China's house price


Data published on Friday by China's National Bureau of Statistics have shown a further rise in home prices in the country .

中国国家统计局上周五发布的数据显示,中国房价继续上涨。

 

The recovery has taken the market by surprise, after many predicted last year that China's housing market was on an irreversible downward trend.

房价回升让市场感到意外,去年有许多人预计,中国住房市场正处于不可逆的下行趋势。


What is going on?

发生了什么事情?

 

One often-cited reason for the rebound is that investors are switching from equities to housing as China's stock market bubble deflates.

关于此次房价回升,一个经常被援引的理由是,随着中国股市泡沫破裂,投资者从股市转向房地产。

 

But there is little evidence of this.

但很少有证据表明这一点。

 

Seventeen percent of consumers surveyed by FT Confidential Research in August said they planned to invest in real estate in coming months, still well below the 41 per cent planning to buy stocks.

英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务部门"投资参考"(FT Confidential Research)今年8月的调查显示,有17%的消费者表示,他们计划在今后几个月投资于房地产,仍远低于计划炒股的消费者比例,后者达到41%。

 

Only 20 per cent of consumers in August thought that now was a good time to buy a house for investment purposes.

今年8月,只有20%的消费者认为,现在是投资购房的好时机。

 

Some observers say the uptick in home prices is happening only in larger Chinese cities. But while it is certainly true that first-tier cities have led the upturn, there are indisputable signs of recovery in smaller cities as well.

 一些观察人士表示,只有较大型城市的房价才出现了上涨。但是尽管一线城市确实引领上涨,中小城市的房价也出现了无可争辩的回升迹象。

 

Outside of provincial capitals and municipalities, the average price of residential floor space sold has risen 2 percent year on year so far in 2015, according to the NBS.

中国国家统计局的数据显示,2015年迄今为止,在省会城市和直辖市以外地区的住房销售均价同比上涨2%。

 

Data from Soufun, a real estate consultancy, show a similar trend.

房地产咨询公司搜房网(SouFun)的数据显示出类似趋势。

 

So what is driving the recovery in home prices?

那么是什么在推动房价回升?

 

Analysis from FT Confidential Research suggests that the main factor is an undersupplied housing market: demand is recovering at a faster pace than supply is being increased.

英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务部门"投资参考"的分析表明,主要推手是住房市场供应不足:需求复苏步伐快于供应增加步伐。

 

One stark indication of this is that while residential floor space sold rose 8 per cent year on year in the first eight months of 2015, the amount of floor space completed fell 17 per cent, according to the NBS.

这方面的一个明显迹象是,中国国家统计局的数据显示,2015年头8个月已售住房面积增长8%,但住房完工面积下降17%。

 

Undersupply, measured by the gap between space completed and space sold, is on the rise.

从完工面积和销售面积的差值来看,供应不足状况正在加剧。

 

Another indication is that housing inventories are now being rapidly drawn down.

另一个迹象是,住房库存正在迅速下降。

 

Residential floor space available for sale — including units being sold off-plan — fell to the equivalent of 10.3 months of sales in August in the 10 cities tracked by FT Confidential Research, the lowest level since March 2014.

在英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务部门"投资参考"追踪的10个城市中,今年8月可供销售的住房面积(包括计划外销售住房)降至相当于10.3个月的销量,这是2014年3月以来的最低水平。

 

Home price growth has recovered in tandem with both of these indications of undersupply.

房价回升与这两个供应不足的指标同时出现。

 

The sharp rise in home prices is ultimately testament to the fact that China needs to build more houses, an important counterpoint to the doom and gloom over China in recent months.

房价急剧上涨最终说明,中国需要建造更多的住房,这与最近几个月唱衰中国的观点形成了非常重要的对比。

 

Developers generally take about six months to respond to higher home prices and start construction on new projects, something that in the past has supported the wider economy by boosting demand for industrial goods.

房地产开发商通常需要6个月左右时间来回应房价上涨,并开工建设新项目——这在过去会提振工业品需求,从而支持宏观经济增长。

 

With home prices now firmly on an upward trend, inventories moderating and credit becoming cheaper and more readily available, there may be ground for taking a more optimistic view on China's prospects for the rest of the year.

随着房价现在处于明显上涨趋势、库存降低以及信贷越来越廉价和更容易获得,我们或许有理由更为乐观地看待中国今年剩余时间的经济前景。 

2016-06-23

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