Pace of growth in China’s natural gas facing hurdles

Rising incomes, rapid urbanization and concerns over the toxic smog that enshrouds many of its cities are driving China away from coal and oil and towards natural gas.              

不断增长的收入、快速推进的城镇化以及人们对笼罩多个中国城市的有毒雾霾的担忧，正促使中国改变对煤炭和石油的依赖，更多地使用天然气。

Gas usage has risen almost sevenfold in 13 years to 168bn cubic metres, and China has become the largest consumer after the US and Russia.     

过去的13年中，中国天然气用量几乎增长了6倍，达到1680亿立方米，中国也成为位居美国和俄罗斯之后的第三大天然气消费国。

Further increases are expected. The power, industrial and transport sectors are forecast to drive demand to 315bcm by 2019, according to the International Energy Agency, the wealthy nations' energy watchdog, and Beijing has set its sights even higher.        

中国天然气用量有望进一步增长。作为富裕国家能源监督机构的国际能源署(IEA)预测，到2019年时，中国电力、工业和交通部门将推动中国天然气需求量增至3150亿立方米，而中国政府设立的目标则更为高远。

But uncertainty remains about the pace of growth into the next decade.    

但是在下一个十年，中国天然气的发展步伐还存在一些不确定的地方。

"Natural gas demand in China has potential to grow much more rapidly than it is now," says Anne-Sophie Corbeau, senior IEA gas analyst. "However, there is still a lot standing in its way. In some ways we are less optimistic about the Chinese."    

"中国天然气需求有潜力实现比现在快得多的增长，"国际能源署高级天然气分析师安妮-索菲·科尔博(Anne-Sophie Corbeau)说，"然而，在其前进的路上还有很多障碍。在某些方面，我们对中国的天然气前景不那么看好。"

The expansion of the country's gas sector is a massive logistical and capital investment challenge. Supply availability, delivery infrastructure, pricing levels and policy, and funding to promote gas over other fuels are all factors that dictate the speed at which the switch occurs.  

中国天然气行业的扩张将给物流和资本投资带来巨大挑战。供应能力、输送基础设施、定价标准和政策、以及推广天然气以取代其他燃料所需的资金，这些都是决定能源结构转换速度的因素。

The government wants to boost gas's share of total energy consumption from 4 per cent to about 8 per cent by the end of 2015 and 10 per cent by 2020, to reduce the plumes of black clouds resulting from heavy coal use.   

中国政府希望提高天然气在能耗总量中所占的比重，目标是到2015年底将这一比重从现在的4%提高到8%左右，到2020年提高到10%，以减少大量燃烧煤炭造成的黑云。

But China's ability to construct the vast infrastructure network needed to produce, import and transport enough gas to meet demand is under scrutiny.       

然而，生产、进口和输送足够多的天然气以满足中国的需求，需要庞大的基础设施网络，中国是否有能力建好这个网络，正受到密切的关注。

"There is a lot of pent-up demand, particularly over the last decade, but infrastructure and the availability of supply have been a constraint," says Michael Stoppard, gas strategist at IHS. "They really haven't been able to develop the gas quickly enough."     

"有很多被压抑的需求，特别是在过去10年里，但基础设施和供应能力一直是瓶颈，"咨询机构IHS的天然气策略师迈克尔·斯托帕德(Michael Stoppard)说，"他们确实未能以足够快的速度发展天然气。"

Pipelines have been at the top of the agenda. After a decade of negotiations, China struck a $400bn supply deal with Russia in May as part of a long-term strategy to raise gas imports via pipeline and liquefied natural gas. China is also connected to pipeline corridors in central Asia and Myanmar. But these will take years to ramp up to full potential, says Ella Chou at the Brookings Institution's China Center.  

管道建设是当务之急。在经过10年的谈判后，中国在5月份与俄罗斯签订了一项价值4000亿美元的天然气供应合同，这是中国通过输气管道和液化气方式提高天然气进口量的长期战略的一部分。另外，中国还连入了中亚和缅甸的管道走廊。但布鲁金斯学会中国中心(Brookings Institution's China Center)的Ella Chou表示，这些举措需要数年时间才能发挥最大潜能。

The country, which is believed to hold the world's largest reserves of shale gas, hopes to replicate the US production boom in the form of tight gas, coal-bed methane and coal-to-gas conversion. But unlike the US shale industry, China does not have thousands of independent oil and gas entrepreneurs competing to expand production.   

中国被认为是世界上页岩气储量最大的国家。它希望通过发展致密气、煤层气和煤转气来复制美国的天然气繁荣。但中国的页岩油气行业与美国不同，中国没有成千上万独立的油气企业家相互竞争来提高产量。

Everything depends on state-owned companies that lack development experience. Exploration rights, geological surveys and the adaptation of drilling and exploration technologies to suit the country have proved problematic, as has pulling together the relevant statistics.        

在中国，一切都依赖国有企业，这些企业缺乏发展经验。勘探权、地质勘测、改进钻探和勘探技术以适应中国情况，都被证明是困难重重，将相关统计数据汇集在一起也是如此。

Beijing has halved its target for shale gas production by 2020 to 30bcm, according to Reuters, after efforts to unlock the unconventional fuel ran into difficulties.

路透社(Reuters)消息称，尝试开采非常规能源遇到困难后，北京方面将2020年的页岩气开采目标减半到300亿立方米。

China became a net gas importer in 2007 and import dependency reached 32 per cent last year. Aside from questions over how quickly indigenous production can increase and whether China can contract enough imports by pipeline, there is a shortage of LNG storage facilities.    

2007年中国成为了天然气净进口国，去年中国对进口天然气的依存度达到32%。国内产量能以多快的速度增长，中国是否能签订合同进口足够多的管道天然气——除了这两个问题以外，中国还面临着液化天然气贮藏设施短缺的困境。

"On top of its long-term contracted gas [deals with] Turkmenistan, Myanmar, Russia, and LNG deals with the Qataris, Australians and Canadians, the ability of the Chinese to continue to grow domestic production – conventional and unconventional – quickly will dictate the needs of extra uncontracted gas that could be at a lower cost," says Thierry Bros, senior analyst at Société Générale in Paris.       

"除了与土库曼斯坦、缅甸、俄罗斯达成的长期合约天然气（交易）以及与卡塔尔、澳大利亚和加拿大达成的液化天然气交易以外，中国继续快速提高国内常规和非常规天然气产量的能力，将决定对额外的非合约天然气的需求，这些天然气的价格可能更低，"法国兴业银行(Société Générale)驻巴黎的高级分析师蒂埃里·布罗斯(Thierry Bros)说。

Ultimately demand will be determined by price, analysts say, because of the many alternatives to imported gas that are cost-competitive. The single biggest competitor is power from coal transported via transmission lines to the coastal regions.        

分析师表示，最终，需求将由价格决定，因为进口天然气的许多替代品的价格也颇具竞争力。其中煤电是最有力的竞争者，煤电通过输电线路传输至沿海地区。

Until 2006 growth in consumption was met entirely by relatively low-cost domestic gas supply. However, higher-priced imports have been added to the mix, and their cost has risen considerably with the oil price.  

2006年之前，价格相对低廉的国内供应的天然气完全可以满足消费量的增长。但是，由于价格较高的进口天然气也进入市场，导致天然气价格随油价猛涨。

"Policy makers often have to strike a balance between providing affordable gas supplies to encourage gas penetration, and setting a price that will serve as an incentive for more domestic production and higher imports," writes Michael Chen of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in a report.        

"是提供较为廉价的天然气供应来推广天然气的使用，还是将定价作为激励措施来促使国内提高天然气产量并增大进口量，政策制定者不得不经常在二者中求得平衡，"牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)的Michael Chen在一份报告中写道。

Manufacturers, which are already paying relatively high prices, want to stay competitive in the global market, while Chinese households want to keep their costs low.      

那些已在支付相对较高价格的制造业企业，希望在国际市场上保持竞争力，中国的家庭则希望生活成本不要升高。

But without even higher prices, the national oil companies will continue to face significant financial losses, diminishing any incentive around exploration, production and developing unconventional reserves.   

但是，如果天然气价格无法进一步提高，中国国有石油公司将继续面临巨额经济损失，从而削弱勘探、生产以及发展非常规储备的动力。