Remember the customers carrying bundles of cash who queued up last September to buy as many iPhones as Apple would sell them?
It could happen again.
We saw this with the iPhone, said Asymco’s Horace Dediu in a
podcast recorded Thursday. We’ll see it in spades with the gold Apple
Most analysts expect demand will be strongest for Apple’s aluminum
and steel watches, which start at $349 and $549, respectively. Dediu
believes Wall Street may be underestimating the intangible appeal of a
$10,000 gold watch. Especially one given as a gift. Especially in China,
with its rich tradition of over-the-top gift giving.
大多数分析师预计，铝金属和不锈钢表壳的Apple Watch需求最大，它们的起售价分别为349美元和549美元。不过德迪欧认为，华尔街可能低估了1万美元黄金版Apple Watch的无形魅力，尤其是送礼传统悠久的中国。
The gold watch has something else going for it. Unlike the value of a
Rolex, say, which can range from a few thousand dollars to tens of
thousands, the price of the Apple Watch in each of its global markets is
fixed; it’s listed on the website.
黄金版Apple Watch还有其他玄机。不像劳力士（Rolex）等其他手表的价格从几千美元到几万美元不等，Apple Watch在全球市场都采用固定价格，其官网已经完全公布。
It’s like currency, says Dediu. Factor in local taxes, and you can
calculate with some precision what he calls the global arbitrage
For example, the entry level gold watch — 38mm 18-Karat Rose Gold
with a white sport band — retails in the U.S. for $10.000. The same
watch is listed on Apple’s Chinese website for RMB 74,800 ($12,045).
Beijing imposes a 17% value added tax. Hong Kong does not.
If someone smuggles one of these into China, says Dediu, they’ll pay for their flight ticket and then some.
He reports that in Boston there were still queues for the iPhone 6
Plus in January, almost five months after it launched. They’re mostly
Chinese, he says. They’re doing it as a business.
德迪欧说，直到今年1月，在iPhone 6 Plus发布近5个月之后，波士顿仍然有顾客在排队购买这款手机。他说：其中主要以中国人居多，他们把它当生意来做。
It can be a rough business, as a documentary film shot outside Apple
Stores in New York City last September demonstrated. It might be even
rougher in April, when buyers could be carrying bundles of cash in units
That’s cash that will go almost directly to Apple’s bottom line.
Dediu estimates that the margin on a $10,000 gold watch could be as high
I wouldn’t be surprised if in the first few months the demand for
gold is far, far higher than we imagined, he says. They’ll just be out
of stock, permanently.