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Slower growth not to shake China’s function as world’s economic engine

即使7%的增速 中国仍是全球经济支柱.jpg


A surging China saved the global economy from recession, but a slowing China may not consign it to a slump.

一个经济飞速增长的中国曾带领全球经济走出泥潭,然而,一个经济发展趋缓的中国也许并不会使全球经济陷入萎靡。


The world’s second-largest economy will grow 6.8 percent this year en route to 6 percent in 2017, the International Monetary Fund projects. That’s half the 14 percent of 2007 and well below the 10 percent of 2010.

据国际货币基金组织预测,作为世界第二大经济体的中国2015年GDP增速为6.8%,并在2017年滑至6%。这一增速差不多仅为2007年14%的一半,比2010年的10%也低了不少。


The deceleration will certainly eat into global growth, given China now accounts for about 15 percent of worldwide gross domestic product. A slowing to 7 percent should be enough to reduce an already sub-par expansion everywhere by 0.5 percentage points, according to Capital Economics Ltd.

由于中国GDP占全球的15%,其经济减速必然会影响全球经济增长。凯投宏观认为,中国经济增速降至7%,这足以使得原本就低迷的全球经济再度下降0.5个百分点。


How it is slowing also matters, according to Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. A shift from import-intensive industries such as real estate and corporate investment will hurt foreign trade partners.

苏格兰皇家银行首席中国经济学家高路易称,经济放缓的方式也很重要。从房地产和企业投资等进口密集型行业转向会损害海外贸易伙伴的利益。


“Import volumes have been very weak, thus affecting the rest of the world,” said Hong Kong-based Kuijs. Commodity producers such as Australia and neighbors in Asia seem to be suffering the most.

驻香港的高路易说道:“低迷的进口量会影响了其它国家。”作为大宗商品生产国的澳大利亚以及中国的邻国和遭受的影响最大。


There are nevertheless some reasons for optimism to think that China will remain an engine for the world economy.

尽管如此,人们还是有理由保持乐观的态度,相信中国依然会是世界经济的引擎。


Firstly, it’s on course soon to pass $11 trillion in size compared with $2 trillion a decade ago. Andrew Kenningham at Capital Economics says that means it will still account for 30 percent of global growth in the next five years, higher than the 28 percent average since 2000. In dollar terms, it should contribute more than any other economy.

首先,中国的经济总量将很快超过11万亿美元,而十年前仅仅是2万亿美元。凯投宏观的资深经济学家安德鲁·肯宁汉姆指出,这意味着未来五年内,中国仍将在全球经济增长中占比达30%,高于2000年以来28%的平均水平。按美元计算,中国对全球经济增长的贡献将大于其他任何经济体。


Weaker Demand

需求疲软


So it can grow more slowly, yet still provide plenty of lift. Another reason to not worry unduly is much of the slowdown has already occurred, and other economies kept ticking over regardless.

因此,中国经济增速即便放缓,却仍能为世界经济提供充足动力。另一个不必过分担忧的原因在于,尽管增速放缓已然开始显现,其它经济体仍在不紧不慢维持原状,未受太大影响。


Weaker Chinese demand may also be welcome in some corners. With China a consumer of more than 10 percent of the world’s oil, commodity importers will be grateful for the slide in energy costs. Given importers typically spend more than energy producers, that should support expansion elsewhere.

对于一些国家而方,中国的需求进一步疲软可能还是件好事。由于全球10%以上的原油都销往中国,因此中国的需求疲软带来原油价格下滑,让其他石油进口国将从中受益。在进口国的消费通常要比能源生产国更多的情况下,这将有助于进口国其他领域的发展与扩张。


Ding Shuang, head of Greater China economic research at Standard Chartered Plc, says the economy’s modernization will also help others. The U.S. will be one beneficiary as China requires more financial services, he says.

渣打银行大中华地区研究部主管丁爽表示,中国经济现代化也将惠及他国,中国对金融服务的需求增加也将使美国成为受惠者之一。


Apple Inc. certainly isn’t noting a slowdown, with iPhone sales in greater China exceeding those in the U.S. for the first time in the latest quarter. “The growth rate in China is significantly higher than most parts of the world,” Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri told Bloomberg this week.

苹果的发展势头就没有放缓。iPhone手机一季度在中国的销量首次超过美国本土。苹果首席财务官卢卡·马埃斯特里说道:“中国经济增长率明显高于大部分国家和地区。”


More Sustainable

增长更可持续


Policy makers also are now on the case, cutting interest rates twice and reducing the amount of deposits banks must keep in reserve. There are also plans to boost the market for local-government bonds and recapitalize policy banks so they can lend more to government-favored projects.

中国的决策者也在采取一些措施:两次降低利率并存款准备金率。同时,他们还制订了相关计划,提振地方政府债券市场,调整政策性银行资本,让政府支持的项目能得到更多资助。


Such stimulus is one reason JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists are predicting a pickup in global growth to more than 3 percent in the second half of the year, from 1.6 percent in the first quarter.

正是看到这一系列激励措施,摩根大通集团的经济学家们才做出了全球经济下半年增长会从第一季度1.6%上升到3%的预测。


For China and the world, the ideal may ultimately be a China that is cushioned for now and more sustainable over time after the credit-fueled runaway rates of the past decade.

过去10年间,中国利率曾一度因信贷问题失控,如果现在经济能放缓且在将来保持稳定的话,那于中国自身,于世界经济都将再好不过了。

2016-06-23

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