Nation must be alert to middle-income trap

Finance Minister Lou Jiwei's warning that the country has a "greater-than-50-percent" chance of falling into the middle-income trap in the next five to 10 years sounded sensational because he is the first at that level to say so.

中国财政部长楼继伟近日表示，在未来的5到10年，中国有“大约一半以上”的几率掉入“中等收入陷阱”，国人应该对此感到警惕。由于是第一位部级领导谈及此事，引发了各界关注。

But, unlike some pessimistic forecasts about the country's economic prospects, Lou's apparent raising of the alarm was meant to underscore the vital importance of honoring the promise of "all-round" reforms and maneuvering decent growth. The country may get stuck in the widely feared trap if it fails to do all the necessary homework properly, Lou said.

不过，与一些对中国经济前景悲观消极的预期所不同的是，楼继伟是想通过敲响警钟来强调履行“全面”改革和实现经济增长的重要性。楼继伟称，如果中国不把应做的工作做好，那么就有可能陷入巨大的让人恐慌的陷阱之中。

It may be too early to say whether or not China will beat the trap; the economy is still in the painful process of shifting gear, and the 7 percent growth can hardly be termed stagnation.

现在判断中国是否会从陷阱中挣脱出来还为时尚早，中国经济还在转型的阵痛之中，而且7%的增长也不能被定义为停滞。

While properly defining the state of our economy is of particular significance in certain circumstances, the foremost imperative for China is to translate the talk about transforming and upgrading its economy into sensible action. It is tempting to underestimate troubles. But a sane mind is essential to make sure macro decision-making does not go awry at such a crucial juncture.

要合理评断一个国家经济状况，特定的环境显得特别重要。对中国来说，现在当务之急就是把关于经济改革创新的构想转化为实际行动。我们有可能低估了实际困难，但是在如此重要的节点上，清醒的头脑很重要，因为可以确保做出的重大决议不会有很大的偏差。

The prospects for our economy can be very bright; but a host of key preconditions have to be met. While stagnation can loom around the corner, the rising cost of labor is neutralizing the Made-in-China label's comparative advantages against lower-income economies, and when it comes to high-tech, we are way behind developed economies.

我们的经济前景是可以十分明朗的，但是必须满足一系列关键的前提条件。我们的经济很有可能很快陷入停滞，因为劳动力成本的提高削弱了“中国制造”与那些低收入国家抗衡的竞争力，而在高科技领域，我们还是远远落后于发达国家的。

Lou blamed the country's high vulnerability to the middle-income trap largely on its rapidly aging population. But there are many more contributing factors, the most evident being weak domestic demand, unfair income distribution and subsequent wealth gap, as well as inadequate innovation capabilities and lack of pro-innovation institutions.

楼继伟称，中国之所以容易陷入中等收入陷阱，是因为我们的人口正在快速老龄化。但是，还有很多别的因素，最明显的就是内需的不足，收入分配不均，以及随之而来的贫富差距加大，还有创新能力不足，缺乏专业的创新机构等。

After consulting 50 Chinese scholars, a magazine affiliated to People's Daily listed 10 common characteristics of countries caught in the middle-income trap: growth slowdown or stagnation, democracy induced chaos, wealth polarization, massive corruption, over-urbanization, shortage of public services, tight job market, social instability, loss of faith, and weak financial system.

在咨询了50位中国学者之后，《人民日报》下属的杂志列举陷入中等收入陷阱国家的十大特点：经济发展缓慢或停滞，民主乱象，贫富分化，贪腐严重，过度城镇化，社会公共资源短缺，就业困难，社会动荡，信仰缺失还有金融系统薄弱。

We are not falling into the trap yet. But to avoid ending up there, plenty of changes must be made. And those changes cannot be made without "all-round" reforms.

我们还没有掉入这个陷阱，但是为了防患于未然，我们需要作出很多改变。不进行全面改革，改变无从谈起。