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What Alibaba means for other August IPOs

阿里上市对IPO市场是福还是祸.jpg


Chinese Internet behemoth Alibaba Group is expected to go public on August 8, owing to the traditional Chinese belief that the number 88 symbolizes good fortune. But don’t expect anyone else to try getting in on the ’88’ action.

中国互联网巨头阿里巴巴集团预计于8月8日上市,因为中国传统认为数字88代表发财。不过,不会再有别的公司选择在这一天上市。

Other companies with IPOs in the pipeline are trying to steer far clear of the Alibaba offering, even if that means pushing their own listings until after Labor Day. Some are worried that Alibaba literally will suck up too many investment dollars, given that bankers expect it to raise around half of the entire 2014 IPO volume. Others are avoiding Alibaba from a marketing perspective, since media organizations will be laser-focused on the larger offering. If a $200 million IPO with a 20% pop falls on August 8, it won’t make a sound.

其它正准备进行首次公开发行的公司都希望尽量离阿里巴巴的上市日期远一点,即使这意味着它们得在美国劳动节之后上市。有些公司担心阿里巴巴会吸走太多投资资金,银行家们预计,阿里巴巴获得的投资资金将占到2014年IPO总额的一半左右。另一些公司刻意避开阿里巴巴则是出于营销方面的考虑,因为媒体届时肯定会聚焦报道阿里巴巴的上市。阿里上市当日,如果有估值2亿美元的公司进行IPO转让20%股份,根本不会有人注意。

For reference, think back to when Facebook went public on May 18, 2012. That also was a Friday, but not a single other company priced an IPO that week.

大家不妨回想下Facebook公司2012年5月18日上市时的情形。当天也是个周五,但整个那一周都没有别的公司进行IPO。

What should be very interesting to see, however, is what comes after 88.

不过,真正有意思的是看8月8日之后会发生什么事情。

There is a school of thought that many companies are waiting for Alibaba to price before making their next move. Particularly other Chinese Internet companies looking for price guidance on their own IPO or M&A aspirations. Other companies simply want Alibaba out of the way before pushing forward, but few will set up road shows for the following week — just in case Alibaba somehow doesn’t meet its mystical target.

有一种看法认为,许多公司都在等着阿里巴巴确定股价,然后再决定下一步动作。特别是其它中国互联网公司,它们期望借此为自身的IPO或并购提供价格指引。其他公司则单纯地希望等阿里巴巴上市后再说,但很少有公司会把路演放在阿里上市之后的那一周,目的也是为了防止万一阿里巴巴没能达到它秘而不宣的筹资目标。

Facebook unfortunately is not a good guide here, because that listing was so bungled by NASDAQ that the entire IPO market virtually ground to a halt (only six companies priced in the subsequent six weeks). Alibaba and NYSE have hopefully prepared well for the trading onslaught, so that Alibaba can be a domino rather than a boulder.

不幸的是,Facebook在这方面并不是个好榜样,因为它的上市完全被纳斯达克搞砸了,整个IPO市场都几乎因此几乎陷入了停顿(此后6周中,只有六家公司进行了IPO)。但愿阿里巴巴和纽约证交所都为交易冲刺做好了准备,这样的话,阿里巴巴就将是带动更多IPO的多米诺骨牌,而不是堵塞其它公司上市之路的巨石。

2016-06-24

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