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Australian former prime minister: China collapse theory is ‘nonsense’ – part 2


China's future economic growth of 6%

His personal forecast for China's economy is 'in the next five-year plan period will be no more than 6%. Despite the natural growth of the Chinese economy may even reach 6 percent, but China has sufficient financial capacity to increase its growth policy Speed. '

Thus, Rudd said he was China Looking ahead 6-7 years is more optimistic.

Rudd said, 'The Chinese government is not a fool, the Chinese government has a lot of very smart people, they know what factors will affect the growth rate, they also know when to intervene, they have 35 years of experience to do so.'

He criticized the West 'Sometimes we do not know Chinese friends accumulated this experience gratitude.'

China is the internal debt owed to local governments

Then Rudd and from four refuted Shambaugh, 'China 's political and economic collapse.'
接着陆克文又从四个方面驳斥了沈大伟 “中国政治经济崩溃论”。

First, the Chinese local government debt crisis Rudd said: 'The Chinese government about this issue and has taken significant steps', 'China's problems, unlike many countries owe a debt, all of which are owed to the Chinese local government domestic debt, Therefore, the logic of foreign debt can not be used to analyze the issue of a country. 'In addition, he pointed out, calculated in accordance with the ratio of debt to GDP, China's central government debt below the level of the US government, therefore, the Chinese government has the ability to solve the debt problem.
第一,中国地方政府债务危机。陆克文说:“中国政府了解这一问题并采取了重大措施”;“中国的问题不像很多国家欠了外债,所有这些中国地方政府欠的都是内债,因此,不能用一国欠外债的逻辑来分析这一问题。”此外他指出,按照债务占GDP比率计算,中国中央政府的债务低于美国政府的水平,因此,中国政府有能 力解决债务问题。

Second, the Chinese wealth disparities Rudd said China's regional income disparities are with reform and opening up from the coast to the interior order of naturally formed and now China's 'along the way' development strategy – he translated as 'pan-Asia-Europe mainland infrastructure projects '- the implementation of China's western provinces will gain greater advantage.

Third, the state-owned enterprise reform is difficult to Rudd said, 'If China successfully developed a new model, more market share to the private sector – this is a step occurs – the private sector will play in the future economic growth of the increasingly The larger role. '
Fourth, the view that China's service industry will be impossible to manufacture as much as manufacturing jobs. He cited the example of Ali Baba, noted that consumer electronics giant size for 1.3 billion people.

They do not cover up the problem

Rudd said the key issue is 'My concern is whether the Chinese government has recognized these problems? There is no cover up these problems? They do not.' Although when it can successfully address these issues he did not know, but he said, 'can see the response plan already in place. '
 陆克文说,问题的关键是 “我关心的是中国政府是否已认识到这些问题?有没有掩盖这些问题?他们没有。”虽然什么时候能成功解决这些问题他并不知道,但他说“可以看到应对计划已经到位。”

Rudd concluded that 'policy direction in each of the areas that I have mentioned, the Chinese government has enough political will and adequate to address these major issues related to China's long-term development model.'

Rudd said the future of US-China relations, he also optimistic. His argument is that 'the most lazy way is pessimistic, the easiest way is to list the issue a big push. He chose a difficult way to find the two positive factors country relations, and face difficulties to influence them. 'He said the United States would like to see bilateral trade reach agreement. He said that although the relationship between the United States and there are many problems, such as the South China Sea issues, however, found the United States relations in the common interest, such as counter-terrorism, climate and the fight against global infectious diseases, will be the development of bilateral relations.


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